On Sun, 8 May 2022 11:21:38 -0400, Frank Krygowski
<
frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>On 5/7/2022 11:01 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>> On Sat, 7 May 2022 17:04:37 -0400, Frank Krygowski
>> <
frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>>
>>> Here's the certification test for seat belts and airbags:
>>>
https://youtu.be/n8vf9EJBBfw?t=24
>> (chomp)
>>> One of my points in my posting was that my friend's helmet failed even
>>> that minimal level of protection. Yet cyclists are told helmets are SO
>>> protective that they should NEVER ride without one.
>>
>> If that's a scam, so are seat belts in automobiles.
>> <
https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/seatbeltbrief/index.html>
>> "Among drivers and front-seat passengers, seat belts reduce the risk
>> of death by 45%, and cut the risk of serious injury by 50%".
>> In other words, if you get into a major accident while wearing seat
>> belts, toss a coin to see if you're going to live.
>You seem to be implicitly defining "major accident" as one that could
>kill you without seat belts (or, I presume, air bags). Obviously, that's
>a complicated definition.
Yes. The 45% reduction is a percentage of those who were injured in
an accident and NOT a percentage of the overall number of automobile
drivers. If someone is NOT injured, they are not part of the group
(statistical population) the experienced a reduction in death rate or
serious injury. In other words, they would have to have experienced
an injury of some sort in order to qualify for the statistical
reduction. Those who were not involved in an accident, or survived
with injuries that were NOT treated at a hospital, where they
presumably be counted, do not qualify.
Whether the hospitals or police accurately recorded whether a seat
belt was used for those treated in the hospital is somewhat
questionable. Most of the time, they ask the survivors if they were
wearing their seat belts. The obvious answer by the survivors is "of
course I was wearing my seat belt" and those who dies as
"undetermined". This tends to produce a rather high seat belt use
among accident survivors.
It's a little better for bicycle helmet use. Standard ambulance and
ER procedures for bicycle accident victims, where a brain/head/spine
injury is suspected, is to NOT remove the helmet until after the
patient is inspected at a hospital.
<
https://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-spinal-injury/basics/art-20056677>
"Keep helmet on. If the person is wearing a helmet, don't remove it."
This tends to produce a more realist helmet use count, but only for
those treated in a hospital or ER.
>If a person survives such a crash without the
>belt or bags, is the crash automatically said to not qualify?
Probably. I would need to read through the survey procedures to be
certain.
>The other relevant probability is, of course, what are the odds of
>getting in such a crash?
Exactly. Notice that I mumbled:
"Hint: It mostly depends on the risk of getting into an accident in
the first place and NOT on the effectiveness of your safety
equipment."
In other words, wearing a helmet or seat belt will NOT prevent someone
from getting into an accident. The claim is that should someone get
into an accident, the chances are much better of survival if they were
wearing a helmet or seat belt. (I won't go into situations where a
helmet or seat belt might contribute or aggravate an injury).
>For roughly 75 years, society judged that those
>odds were low enough. Not zero, but low enough that no additional
>protection was needed. (I can report never having had a moving on-road
>crash in any motor vehicle.) Then, post Ralph Nader, the boundary
>between "sufficiently safe" and "Danger! Danger!" was shifted to include
>ordinary motoring, and seat belts became a requirement.
Yep. The current trend is something like "if it saves one life, it's
justified". In other words, throw out the odds and only look at the
potential damage. For example, pain killer drug addiction is now
considered a "major problem" a major problem because a very small
percentage of users develop an addiction. Never mind that the
statistical addiction rate is tiny (23,000 out of 7 million opioid
takers in a training sample). Never mind that most opioid addictions
are to recreational drugs, not medical drugs. So, the problem is
handed over to a computer algorithm by NarxCare, which tends to deny
pain killers to many that genuinely need it. It's like swatting flies
with a sledge hammer.
"The Pain Was Unbearable. So Why Did Doctors Turn Her Away?"
<
https://www.wired.com/story/opioid-drug-addiction-algorithm-chronic-pain/>
I'll stop here before I get genuinely irritated.
>But to fully understand the seat belt decision in contrast to bike
>helmets, I think it's necessary to consider Benefits vs. Detriments.
>Seat belts have roughly zero detriments.
I still remember the arguments over mandatory seat belt use in the
early 1960's. One could be trapped in the car by the seat belt in
case of an accident. Small children would be strangled by a shoulder
belt. Pregnancy issues and so on. It's still going on today:
<
https://automobiles.uslegal.com/seat-belt-usage/why-people-ignore-seat-belts/>
I had to talk my way out of a ticket, while riding as a passenger, for
not wearing a shoulder belt because I had recently had bypass surgery
and there was a risk of ripping my chest open. I'm sure the same
logic used to justify not wearing a face mask could also be used. Face
masks and seat belts are not 100% effective and are therefore useless
and not needed.
>They add a negligible dollar cost to the car.
<
https://howmuchly.com/cost-to-replace-a-seat-belt>
"According to 2022 estimates, seat belt replacement cost ranges from
$20 to $250. You have to pay $80-$100 on average for labor costs for a
qualified mechanic. The average price of the seat belt is anywhere
near $20-$150."
>They last forever.
The drivers seat belts in my 21 year old are in need of replacement.
They tend to get dirty, so I wash them every 2 years. The spring
loaded retraction mechanism has digested some debris and will
eventually need to be disassembled and cleaned. I guess by today's
throw-away standards, 21 years might seem like forever.
Marginally related drivel: Lenovo/Motorola just declared my 2 year
old Moto G Power (2020) phone to be "unsupported" and will no longer
qualify for receive updates. Product life is becoming shorter.
>They are extremely easy to use. And
>yes, tests show they are reasonably (not perfectly) effective. (BTW, air
>bags add very little more protection, at much higher cost and some added
>danger.) Seat belt benefits easily exceed their negligible detriments.
I could also argue those, but it's easier to just make my point now.
Every single point of contention for safety supports a rather vocal
minority. Pick ANY safety device, and you will find a group of
detractors ready to convince you, the public, and the government that
the safety device is in some manner dangerous, inferior, or
ineffective. I do not consider such detractors to be a problem. I do
consider the laws, rules, and regulations factories to be big
problems.
>Bike helmets fail by those standards. They are a much higher percentage
>of the cost of a bike, they are difficult to fit and properly adjust,
>they are fragile and are promoted as needing relatively frequent
>replacement, they are inconvenient to transport and store, and their
>effectiveness is questionable at best. All this to protect against
>largely mythical dangers.
I believe that I just demonstrated that cost, inconvenience, and
effectiveness are issues with ALL types of safety devices. The only
distinction is where you, proponents, vested interests, regulators,
and legislators set their thresholds. I don't see bicycle helmets as
an exception.